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Bloomberg and the election terrain

Sam Webb
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I have said more than once that the presidential campaign and its outcome could well depend on what is happening in the larger political environment over the coming year. And that environment isn’t entirely predictable. It can change in unanticipated ways. And these changes can quickly alter – even turn upside down – the election terrain and the prospects of candidates, parties, and the coalitions and movements that support them.

A downward slide of the global economy, for example, isn’t out of the question, according to economist Larry Summers. If it happens, it will undoubtedly change the dynamics of the elections in significant ways. Much the same could be said about another terrorist attack.

And this morning we are greeted with the news that Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York and billionaire, is considering a run for the White House as an independent. Bloomberg, according to the NYT, is exasperated especially by Donald Trump on the right and by Bernie Sanders on the left.

If it goes beyond a trial balloon and Bloomberg enters the race, it too will shake things up. While prudence tells me to wait before offering any opinion, my initial reaction is that his candidacy would disadvantage the presidential run of the Democratic nominee, be it Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton – not to mention the broad democratic movement that hopes to defeat the right and emerge out of this year’s elections on higher ground.

In the 1992 presidential campaign, the independent candidacy of Ross Perot, another billionaire by the way, hurt the reelection bid of the elder George Bush, thus helping a relative newcomer to national politics – Bill Clinton – win the presidency. A Bloomberg presidential run, I suspect, would cut the other way, making it more difficult for the Democratic nominee to win the White House as well as weakening the leverage of the broader people movement in the post election period.

Stay tuned.

Written by

Sam Webb

I'm a long-time socialist and activist, but new to the blogging world. I hope to bring a different perspective on politics, sports, culture, and Marxism. Besides blogging, I also leave plenty of time for swimming, hiking, ESPN, music, reading, drinking good beer, and, not least, my family and friends. I wish I could play basketball, but my knees ruled out that possibility long ago. While I currently reside in New York, my politically formative years were spent in Portland, Me. and Detroit during the 1970s and 1980s. I graduated from St. Francis Xavier University in Nova Scotia (where I played basketball) and received a MA in economics from the University of Connecticut. I was the national chairperson of the Communist Party, USA from 2000 until 2014 when I stepped down at the convention. In 2016 I resigned from the Communist Party two years later. We were no longer on the same page.

3 responses

  2. I’m not sure you’re right, Sam. It’s hard to tell which way things would break, but my initial reaction is that Bloomberg would siphon off more votes from the Republicans than from the Democrats. But I’ll admit it’s very uncertain. Bloomberg, as an independent, would of course be attractive to the growing number of independents. And he could appeal to some Democrats, especially if Sanders is the nominee. Indeed I think there’s room to wonder if perhaps one of Bloomberg’s motives is to guard against the possibility of Sanders winning. But that’s mere speculation at this point.

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  3. The news seems to show that what I thought was speculation may be well founded. Bloomberg seems to be preparing to run if Trump and Sanders are the candidates–especially, I suspect, Sanders. Sounds as if he’s ready to serve as the ruling class’ “ace in the hole” if Sanders is nominated. He would certainly draw the votes of a lot of “moderate” Democrats, and of some independents, away from Sanders.

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